Adstock & Saturation Curve (Concept Demo)

Adstock & Saturation Curve (Concept Demo)

See the two-step transform behind media mix modeling — advertising carryover (adstock) feeding into a diminishing-returns saturation curve — and why doubling spend never doubles reach.

live — runs in your browserOnlinePre + Post-campaign

Inputs

Results

Adstock is Simon Broadbent's 1979 concept that advertising effect decays over time rather than switching off instantly — each week's 'effective' weight is this week's GRPs plus a decayed share of last week's. Saturation is the separate, older idea that response curves flatten as spend rises — you can't buy reach you've already bought. Production media mix models (see the patent reference below) fit both curves to real sales-response data; this demo runs the same two-step transform on numbers you enter, using a simple exponential saturation curve, so you can see directly why doubling weekly spend never comes close to doubling effective reach.

How this is calculated

This week's adstocked GRPs
Source: Broadbent (1979) adstock; saturation curve per patents like US9721271B2 (Nielsen/Circana)
Effective reach at current spend
Effective reach if you doubled this week's GRPs
Same decay and saturation parameters, twice the spend
Incremental reach from doubling spend
This is the diminishing-returns number — compare it to what +100% spend would give you under a naive linear assumption

Every model runs locally in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Adstock & Saturation Curve (Concept Demo) free?

Yes. It runs instantly in your browser with no signup, and the methodology behind it is documented on this page.

References

Related tools